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I see something in Alexsandr Dolgopolov Jr.
12 Comments · Posted by Scoop Malinowski in Articles, Scoop
Certain players stand out from the pack. I have a pretty decent eye on spotting extraordinary talent in tennis, a confidence that was gained by sensing early the genius of Marcelo Rios and Roger Federer. Yeah, I know, it’s obvious now but it wasn’t so clear back when Rios was still a teenager down two breaks in the fifth set in 1994 to the seeded Thomas Enqvist at the U.S. Open. The passionate Rios battled back tooth and nail with some magical macho tennis and some unforgettably cocky court behavior – spitting at the ball, blowing the ball out, grabbing his crotch – and forced a tiebreak which he lost. But you could see this smooth colorful kid had major talent and the will and the drive. Four years later he was #1 in the world.
When Federer finally won his first Wimbledon in 2003, there were still many critics who doubted that the Swiss man had it in him to dominate tennis like Pete Sampras. They couldn’t forget the lapses and failures against Luis Horna, David Nalbandian, Mario Ancic, Lleyton Hewitt, etc. Even though he won Wimbledon, there were still questions about the fortitude of Federer – was he a one-hit wonder? – as there was skepticism about Sampras after he lost the 1992 U.S. Open final to Edberg. I had a sense Federer was indeed going to go on a big roll and spoke about it. In the press room at the 2004 U.S. Open, I suggested in a conversation that Federer just might break Pete’s slam record of 14. A very respected veteran tennis journalist immediately scoffed at that prediction, adding that I was jumping the gun and there was a lot of tennis to be played.
But that’s what tennis experts are supposed to do: Predict the future. Isn’t it? We are the ones with the educated eyes who are supposed to be able to see the future and reveal it, if we have the vision.
With that said, I see something in this smooth moving, pony-tailed 21-year-old Aleksandr Dolgopolov Jr. from Ukraine. The first match I saw him play was against Nadal in Madrid. Though he lost in two sets – 64 63 – he showed all kinds of excellent attributes. He stung Nadal with aces. He blasted forehand and backhand winners. And in the second set, fooled Nadal with drop shots, two in one game. He also showed an impressive poise and comfort of playing on the big stage in the main event. It may have been a rountine win for Nadal but the calm but intensely focused and competitive Dolgopolov impressed in defeat.
I began to follow him after that match. He defeated Albert Montanes in Nice 63 75, then lost to Gasquet 06 62 36. At the French Open he beat the experienced Clement in five sets and Fernando Gonzalez in three sets before falling to Nicolas Almagro 36 36 46 in third round. Last week in Eastbourne, Dolgo won three matches before losing in the semis 36 57 to eventual champion Michael Llodra.
Dolgopolov Jr. won his first round match at Wimbledon over Marco Chiudinelli 64 63 63 and is presently ranked #43 in the world. He’s come along way from Challengers in Morocco and a ranking of #131 in Brisbane in January.
I did some research and learned he stands 6-ft, and weighs 192 pounds. His father Oleksandr played Davis Cup for Russia in the 90’s and his mom was a gymnast who won gold and silver at the European Championships. That is some pretty solid athletic pedigree. And he’s Ukrainian, which is the ethnicity of the two reigning world heavyweight champion brothers, Vitali and Wladimir Klitschko, and Andrei Medvedev the French Open finalist.
Yeah, I know it’s so hard to predict the future, especially in tennis. For every Federer and Rios there are many Donald Youngs, Brian Bakers, Nicolas Perreiras, Daniel Elsners, Arnaud DiPasquales or Henrik Holms. But just keep your eye on Alexsandr Dolgopolov Jr….I think he might be a future top 10 player. Or better.
(Photo credit FFT)
Ukrainian now #43 ATP - and ascending fast
Sid Bachrach · June 22, 2010 at 8:44 pm
I met a tennis pro in San Diego who was a pretty awesome player himself a few years ago and he said that he has lots of youngsters who are being groomed for tennis success at an early age and some of them look absolutely great as youngsters. But the guy said that he can’t tell which of the youngsters will become great players. He thought that with other sports like football, where a huge guy can often be molded into a reasonably good lineman, you can use size and speed and agility to predict who will go on to college level football. But he said with tennis, no matter how great the youngster looks in practice or in juniors matches, you can’t predict. He said he thought Andre Agassi was an exception. The guy said he had watched some videos of Andre when Andre was 11 or 12 and Andre’s talents were already incredible. He said there was another youngster (forgot the name) who used to defeat Chang and Courier in the juniors but never got beyond the juniors or maybe college tennis.
I would think that DelPotro might be an exception like Andre was. I remember watching him on an outer court at the US Open a few years ago and can’t remember if it was juniors or regular match. But DelPo walloped the crap out of the ball even then. I have watched some huge hitters like Philopousis and Blake and compared to DelPo, those guys were hitting with fly swatters.
Scoop Malinowski · June 22, 2010 at 9:00 pm
Think you mean Al Parker who was so good, Courier said they’d see his name in their draw and he would know, Well I’m out of this tournament. That’s how good Al Parker was. It’s so hard to predict them young. Also junior success early makes them a target and everyone is gunning for them. It’s probably better to not win so much early, have gradual progress. Then there’s the burnout factor. Injuries. The monotony. Pressure. Tennis is a tough sport 🙂
Realy was amazing how Martina Hingis got to #1 so young at 16.
Dan Markowitz · June 23, 2010 at 12:51 am
Yes, it’s true with Hingis, she was an extraordinary talent and just had that sense of superiority so early. I like Nishikori, but Dolgo has the upper hand on him because he’s a bit bigger. But I think that even though Dolgo is a nice striker of the ball, I haven’t seen him have much success outside of the clay circuit. So let’s see him progress on the grass or the US hard court circuit.
Still, I like your boldness in making this pick, Scoop. I like the young German tall tower, Daniel Brands, and as I said earlier on this site, I think Bernard Tomic has the best goods of the 18-and-younger set.
Richard Pagliaro · June 23, 2010 at 2:09 am
Gutsy pick Scoop. I hope you are right. I honestly have not seen enough of him to say. But I saw that Madrid match and was really impressed not only with how he handled pace but this dude hits the highest (good) drop shots I think I’ve ever seen. I mean his drop shots were clearing the net by 2 or 3 feet sometimes but he had so much funky spin on them they were still effective.
I covered Hingis’ first US Open matches and Red is right: she had so much poise and polish for a kid. What impressed me and drew me to her game was she was playing the game, playing the angles, setting up the opponent, constructing points. She’d play one pattern then 2 points later switch it up and go behind the opponent. She had such a versatility and freedom of thought for a young kid was really remarkable.
I always think of that Venus comment when I think of the young Hingis. At the Oepn a couple years back someone asked Venus to compare the Venus of today to the one that lost to Hingis in ’97 US Open final and Venus replied: “I was just a hitter than – I had no plan I just hit the ball – now I’m a player.”
The thing that impressed me about Hingis was even at a young age she was a player. I remember when hingis beat Novotna in the ’96 Open quarter, very tight match, but she was toying with her at times with her shot selection and she had a shot to beat Graf in the semis that year.
Also remember covering Nadal’s first or second career match at the Open (if I remember right). He played Fernando Vicente on the court near the Heineken Bar and you could see the kid had so much raw desire and so much spirit that if he could beef up his serve (was just spinning it in then) you knew he could be the real deal.
The player I thought would be better by now – in a rarity I agreed with Red on this one – was Grigor Dimitrov. Just felt this kid had all the shots, the skills just has not put it together and also had injuries. I thought he would be more accomplished than he has been at this time.
It’s really, really tough to pick out players. Even Brad Gilbert, who has a very good eye obviously, was saying today he wonders why Mahut is not ranked higher with his game. I always thought Marta Domahowska would be better than she was. Always liked her serve, she moved well, I thought she would be a solid top 50 player.
Saw one of Federer’s matches the year he won Orange Bowl (he had bleached blonde hair like he was a member of Duran Duran back then) and you could see the guy was dripping with talent and loved to be a shotmaker but I’d be lying if I said I thought then he would be as great as he became. Definitely could see he was very very skilled and loved his game but can’t say I thought “This kid will be the greatest of all time…”
Always amazed that Harry Hopman was able to look at the young John MCEnroe and say “that kid will be the best in the world someday…”
I remember reading Arthur Ashe’s book and Ashe wrote there were only two times in his life when he looked at young teenagers and said they were can’t miss pros: Steffi Graf and Agassi.
Sid Bachrach · June 23, 2010 at 2:41 pm
I found a juniors match on youtube of Rafael Nadal when he was about 13 and he loses to another Spanish youngster on a clay surface in Spain. The other Spanish lad seems quite confident of his own abilities but he is completely unrecognizable and I have no idea who the youngster is.
Alethia Veritas · June 23, 2010 at 4:37 pm
Hardly a bold comment saying that an improving top 40 player will enter the top 10. The Dolgopolov bandwagon started last year, and you are simply another passenger on it.
Scoop Malinowski · June 24, 2010 at 2:38 am
Well I’m definitely hopping aboard if you let me Alethia. Wish I saw him play last year if he was at US Open qualies, he has an interesting game. Top 10 is being cautious, he can go higher than that.
Dan Markowitz · June 24, 2010 at 6:36 pm
Alethia and Scoop,
What are you talking about? This guy’s ranking was so last year he didn’t even play Wimbledon and US Open. He was still ranked in the 100’s earlier this year. I will eat more hot dogs than that Japanese dude at Coney Island in Brooklyn if this guy ever reaches top-10. I know he lost to Tsonga today 10-8 in fifth, but that doesn’t mean he’s top 10 material!
He lost to Simon Stadler in like straight sets at the Australian this year. To give you some perspective, I saw Vince smear Simon Stadler at Newport a few years ago when Vince was like 33 or 34 years old. This Dolgo has never, never played a single decent tournament in his life at the ATP level on hard courts. What makes you think at 22 yrs old in November, this no-name has a chance in ATP heaven to be in the top-10. This is like Tommy boy betting me that Gilles Simon would semi in two slams. Dolgo will never be top 10.
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Scoop Malinowski · June 25, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Red; I don’t know how many times you’ve actually seen Dolgo play but you might be seriously underestimating this guy’s game. To take Tsonga to the limit like that in I believe his first trip to Wimbledon is quite impressive. I think if you watched this guy play more over the coming months, you will change that opinion.
Dan Markowitz · June 26, 2010 at 12:50 am
I asked Greg Sharko of the ATP how far he thought Dolgo would go and whether he was a possible top 10 player, and he said, definitely not, maybe top 30 or 40. I just don’t think you realize how hard it is to get into top 10 and how it’s impossible if you never have any good results on the predominant surface, hard courts.
Scoop Malinowski · June 26, 2010 at 1:32 am
Have to respect the opinion of The Shark who knows his tennis. But every once in a while there are unique & unpredictable players who emerge and defy the odds. For example, NOBODY expected Isner to do what he has, and James Blake was another longshot who overachieved. Sam Querrey is another longshot who is going to continue to ascend up the rankings. Dolgo is still young and has plenty of time to improve and refine his game. And gain more physical strength and experience. He’s off to a remarkable start and you have to think the best is yet to come.
And to play the #10 seed Tsonga to 10-8 in the fifth is simply a FANTASTIC Performance which indicates there is something special there.